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2004 President · NV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.88% · Republican 50.47%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.878 − 50.470 = -2.592
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.592) = 0.592
  4. Absolute miss = |0.592| = 0.592

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4504, race ID 788 (538 database).