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2004 Senate · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 58%

R+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.15% · Republican 63.85%

R+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 58 = -31.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.145 − 63.849 = -27.704
  3. Signed miss = -31.00 − (-27.704) = -3.296
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.296| = 3.296

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4476, race ID 1638 (538 database).