2004 Senate · IA
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 27% · Republican 68%
R+41.0
The certified result
Democrat 27.88% · Republican 70.18%
R+42.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 27 − 68 = -41.00
- Actual margin = 27.877 − 70.184 = -42.307
- Signed miss = -41.00 − (-42.307) = 1.307
- Absolute miss = |1.307| = 1.307
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4473, race ID 1627 (538 database).