2004 President · KS
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 651 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 60%
R+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.62% · Republican 62.00%
R+25.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 60 = -23.00
- Actual margin = 36.623 − 62.004 = -25.381
- Signed miss = -23.00 − (-25.381) = 2.381
- Absolute miss = |2.381| = 2.381
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4469, race ID 771 (538 database).