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2004 President · NY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 636 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 39%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.13% · Republican 37.69%

D+18.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 39 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.131 − 37.687 = 18.444
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (18.444) = -0.444
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.444| = 0.444

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4465, race ID 789 (538 database).