2004 President · AL
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 636 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 57%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.84% · Republican 62.46%
R+25.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 57 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 36.844 − 62.461 = -25.617
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-25.617) = 7.616
- Absolute miss = |7.616| = 7.616
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4461, race ID 756 (538 database).