2004 President · FL
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 48%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%
R+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.007) = 4.006
- Absolute miss = |4.006| = 4.006
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4452, race ID 764 (538 database).