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2004 Senate · NH

Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 617 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 64%

R+40.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.72% · Republican 66.18%

R+32.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 64 = -40.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.717 − 66.178 = -32.461
  3. Signed miss = -40.00 − (-32.461) = -7.539
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.539| = 7.539

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4440, race ID 1634 (538 database).