Skip to content

2004 Governor · NH

Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 617 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.02% · Republican 48.87%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.018 − 48.871 = 2.147
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.147) = -1.147
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.147| = 1.147

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4440, race ID 1371 (538 database).