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2004 President · AZ

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 50%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.40% · Republican 54.87%

R+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 50 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.397 − 54.869 = -10.472
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-10.472) = 5.473
  4. Absolute miss = |5.473| = 5.473

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4421, race ID 758 (538 database).