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2015 Governor · MS

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2015-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 66%

R+38.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.38% · Republican 66.24%

R+33.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 66 = -38.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.385 − 66.243 = -33.858
  3. Signed miss = -38.00 − (-33.858) = -4.142
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.142| = 4.142

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 44111, race ID 1217 (538 database).