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2015 Governor · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2015-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 798 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 40%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.81% · Republican 52.52%

R+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.815 − 52.519 = -8.704
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-8.704) = 13.704
  4. Absolute miss = |13.704| = 13.704

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 44107, race ID 1216 (538 database).