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2004 President · FL

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%

R+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-5.007) = 1.006
  4. Absolute miss = |1.006| = 1.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4410, race ID 764 (538 database).