2015 Governor · LA
Market Research Insight · fieldwork ended 2015-11-15 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 39%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.12% · Republican 43.88%
D+12.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 56.115 − 43.885 = 12.230
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (12.230) = 2.771
- Absolute miss = |2.771| = 2.771
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 44099, race ID 1219 (538 database).