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2015 Governor · LA

JMC Analytics · fieldwork ended 2015-11-15 (6 days before the election) · 635 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 35%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.12% · Republican 43.88%

D+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 35 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.115 − 43.885 = 12.230
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (12.230) = 3.771
  4. Absolute miss = |3.771| = 3.771

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 44098, race ID 1219 (538 database).