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2015 Governor · LA

JMC Analytics · fieldwork ended 2015-11-19 (2 days before the election) · 614 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.12% · Republican 43.88%

D+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.115 − 43.885 = 12.230
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (12.230) = -8.229
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.229| = 8.229

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 44095, race ID 1219 (538 database).