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2004 President · IN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 589 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 58%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.26% · Republican 59.95%

R+20.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 58 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.263 − 59.945 = -20.682
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-20.682) = 1.682
  4. Absolute miss = |1.682| = 1.682

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4392, race ID 770 (538 database).