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2004 Senate · FL

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 1,098 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 49%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.32% · Republican 49.43%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.321 − 49.434 = -1.113
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-1.113) = -3.887
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.887| = 3.887

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4374, race ID 1621 (538 database).