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2004 President · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 984 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.92% · Republican 46.24%

D+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.923 − 46.239 = 6.684
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (6.684) = -1.685
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.685| = 1.685

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4364, race ID 786 (538 database).