2004 President · NM
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 49%
even
The certified result
Democrat 49.05% · Republican 49.84%
R+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 49.047 − 49.838 = -0.791
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-0.791) = 0.792
- Absolute miss = |0.792| = 0.792
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4361, race ID 787 (538 database).