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2004 President · TN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 629 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 58%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.52% · Republican 56.80%

R+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 58 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.525 − 56.799 = -14.274
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-14.274) = -3.726
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.726| = 3.726

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4360, race ID 797 (538 database).