2004 Senate · OK
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 656 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 47%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.24% · Republican 52.77%
R+11.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 47 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 41.245 − 52.765 = -11.520
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-11.520) = 3.520
- Absolute miss = |3.520| = 3.520
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4359, race ID 1639 (538 database).