2004 President · MN
Gallup · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 1,078 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 44%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.09% · Republican 47.61%
D+3.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.090 − 47.614 = 3.476
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (3.476) = 4.524
- Absolute miss = |4.524| = 4.524
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4343, race ID 778 (538 database).