Skip to content

2004 Senate · WI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 36%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.35% · Republican 44.11%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 36 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.350 − 44.112 = 11.238
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (11.238) = 11.761
  4. Absolute miss = |11.761| = 11.761

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4342, race ID 1647 (538 database).