2004 Senate · OH
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 57%
R+24.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.15% · Republican 63.85%
R+27.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 57 = -24.00
- Actual margin = 36.145 − 63.849 = -27.704
- Signed miss = -24.00 − (-27.704) = 3.704
- Absolute miss = |3.704| = 3.704
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4331, race ID 1638 (538 database).