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2004 Senate · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 622 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.98% · Republican 42.74%

D+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.980 − 42.736 = 12.244
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (12.244) = -6.244
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.244| = 6.244

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4328, race ID 1646 (538 database).