Skip to content

2004 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 957 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.02% · Republican 48.87%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.018 − 48.871 = 2.147
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (2.147) = -3.147
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.147| = 3.147

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4325, race ID 1371 (538 database).