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2004 President · FL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 742 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%

R+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.007) = 4.006
  4. Absolute miss = |4.006| = 4.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4323, race ID 764 (538 database).