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2004 President · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.71% · Republican 50.81%

R+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.707 − 50.814 = -2.107
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-2.107) = -3.893
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.893| = 3.893

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4304, race ID 790 (538 database).