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2004 President · NV

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 636 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 53%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.88% · Republican 50.47%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 53 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.878 − 50.470 = -2.592
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-2.592) = -5.408
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.408| = 5.408

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4301, race ID 788 (538 database).