Skip to content

2004 President · MN

Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 743 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.09% · Republican 47.61%

D+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.090 − 47.614 = 3.476
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.476) = 0.524
  4. Absolute miss = |0.524| = 0.524

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4291, race ID 778 (538 database).