2000 President · national
CBS News · fieldwork ended 2000-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 1,273 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 46%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%
D+0.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.492) = -4.492
- Absolute miss = |-4.492| = 4.492
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 42760, race ID 40 (538 database).