2009 Governor · NJ
GQR · fieldwork ended 2009-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 604 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 39%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.88% · Republican 48.46%
R+3.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 39 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 44.879 − 48.457 = -3.578
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-3.578) = 6.578
- Absolute miss = |6.578| = 6.578
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 42512, race ID 1311 (538 database).