2000 President · national
GQR · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 1,009 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 44%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%
D+0.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.492) = 1.508
- Absolute miss = |1.508| = 1.508
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 37110, race ID 40 (538 database).