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2014 House · FL-13

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-03-08 (3 days before the election) · 702 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.62% · Republican 48.52%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.619 − 48.520 = -1.901
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.901) = 4.901
  4. Absolute miss = |4.901| = 4.901

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36330, race ID 1777 (538 database).