2014 House · NY-19
Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 46%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 28.78% · Republican 48.55%
R+19.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 46 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 28.777 − 48.546 = -19.769
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-19.769) = 9.769
- Absolute miss = |9.769| = 9.769
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36088, race ID 5609 (538 database).