Skip to content

2014 House · NY-11

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 713 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 53%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.32% · Republican 43.51%

R+6.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 53 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.324 − 43.506 = -6.182
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-6.182) = -12.818
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.818| = 12.818

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35980, race ID 5601 (538 database).