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2014 House · GA-12

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44.4% · Republican 48.1%

R+3.7

The certified result

Democrat 45.25% · Republican 54.75%

R+9.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.4 − 48.1 = -3.70
  2. Actual margin = 45.247 − 54.753 = -9.506
  3. Signed miss = -3.70 − (-9.506) = 5.806
  4. Absolute miss = |5.806| = 5.806

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35979, race ID 5457 (538 database).