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2014 House · GA-10

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32.2% · Republican 60.6%

R+28.4

The certified result

Democrat 33.48% · Republican 66.52%

R+33.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32.2 − 60.6 = -28.40
  2. Actual margin = 33.478 − 66.522 = -33.044
  3. Signed miss = -28.40 − (-33.044) = 4.645
  4. Absolute miss = |4.645| = 4.645

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35979, race ID 5455 (538 database).