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2014 House · GA-7

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 61%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.61% · Republican 65.39%

R+30.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 61 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.613 − 65.387 = -30.774
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-30.774) = 6.774
  4. Absolute miss = |6.774| = 6.774

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35979, race ID 5452 (538 database).