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2014 House · GA-1

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 60%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.09% · Republican 60.91%

R+21.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 60 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.086 − 60.914 = -21.828
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-21.828) = -1.173
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.173| = 1.173

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35979, race ID 5446 (538 database).