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2014 House · UT-4

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.81% · Republican 50.92%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.815 − 50.919 = -5.104
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-5.104) = 0.104
  4. Absolute miss = |0.104| = 0.104

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35948, race ID 5734 (538 database).