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2014 House · HI-1

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 42%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.93% · Republican 48.07%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.928 − 48.072 = 3.856
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (3.856) = 3.143
  4. Absolute miss = |3.143| = 3.143

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35927, race ID 5460 (538 database).