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2014 House · CA-52

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 608 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.59% · Republican 48.41%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.587 − 48.413 = 3.174
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (3.174) = -4.174
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.174| = 4.174

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35923, race ID 5404 (538 database).