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2014 House · MA-6

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 406 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 36%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.97% · Republican 41.14%

D+13.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 36 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.970 − 41.139 = 13.831
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (13.831) = -2.830
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.830| = 2.830

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35921, race ID 5528 (538 database).