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2014 House · MI-11

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 472 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 47%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.47% · Republican 55.90%

R+15.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 47 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.472 − 55.897 = -15.425
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-15.425) = 3.425
  4. Absolute miss = |3.425| = 3.425

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35919, race ID 5542 (538 database).