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2014 House · NJ-5

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.30% · Republican 55.41%

R+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.303 − 55.408 = -12.105
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-12.105) = 7.106
  4. Absolute miss = |7.106| = 7.106

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35918, race ID 5580 (538 database).