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2014 House · NY-24

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 40%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.70% · Republican 46.15%

R+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.705 − 46.152 = -10.447
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-10.447) = 15.447
  4. Absolute miss = |15.447| = 15.447

The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35915, race ID 5614 (538 database).