2014 House · NY-21
Harper Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 560 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 47%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 29.27% · Republican 43.85%
R+14.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 47 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 29.269 − 43.851 = -14.582
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-14.582) = 0.582
- Absolute miss = |0.582| = 0.582
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35914, race ID 5611 (538 database).