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2014 House · NY-19

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 727 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 58%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.78% · Republican 48.55%

R+19.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 58 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.777 − 48.546 = -19.769
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-19.769) = -3.231
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.231| = 3.231

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35908, race ID 5609 (538 database).